Harvey, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

348
FXUS63 KBIS 092242
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
542 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected across southwest
  and portions of south central North Dakota through early this
  evening.

- Scattered rain showers, along with a few rumbles of thunder,
  will occur through this evening.

- Temperatures will continue warming through Saturday.

- Turing colder beginning Sunday with widespread medium to high
  chances for rain Sunday and Monday. Some snow may mix in
  Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 542 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Scattered thunderstorms have developed over much of the
northwest and north central. Therefore, expanded areal coverage
of thunder mentions over the next few hours. Showers and
thunderstorms should end later this evening. Otherwise, strong
northwest winds persist across much of the area. Similar to the
showers and thunderstorms, these too will rapidly diminish as
the sun sets.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Critical fire weather conditions continue over portions of
southwest and south central ND this afternoon. See fire weather
section for more information on today, as well as fire weather
concerns for Thursday and Friday.

The story for the remainder of this afternoon into the early
evening will be the winds and low humidities over the southwest
and far south central. No changes to the Red Flag Warning.

Mainly quiet (other than fire weather which is covered below)
Thursday and Friday. We do see a slight cooldown over eastern
portions of central ND under mostly cloudy skies early in the
day. The west should see a lot more sunshine and climb into the
60s once again. A passing diurnally driven shower can not be
ruled out over central into eastern ND, but overall shower
activity is expected to be less than today.

On Friday we see a dry cold front push into the forecast area.
Currently it looks to be mostly dry until possibly we see some
post frontal activity Friday night. Overall though, most will
remain dry.

Saturday will be a transition day, mostly dry, but we begin to
transition to a southwest upper level flow bringing a more
active pattern to the area by Sunday. Saturday however is
expected to be mostly dry except for the northwest portion of
the state. Highs will be generally in the 60s. Lower 60s
northwest and closer to 70 in the southern James River Valley.

Sunday and Monday will see an upper level low track across the
Northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. At this time
there is a lot of uncertainty in resulting track of the system
as it traverses the state. Currently the NBM is depicting
widespread medium to high chances for precipitation, with
northern areas favored to see higher qpf amounts. There could
even be a little snow in the Sunday night through Monday morning
timeframe, with little in the way of accumulations expected at
this time. We then see things dry out after Monday with a bit of
a warming trend into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Scattered thunderstorms have developed across northwestern and
north central North Dakota, with isolated showers elsewhere.
KMOT is currently being impacted by these thunderstorms, though
they look likely to move through within the next hour or two.
Overall, these scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to persist over the next few hours, though should diminish as
the sun sets. MVFR ceilings and visibility are possible under
any thunderstorms that develop, with brief IFR visibility not
out of the question as well. Otherwise, strong northwesterly
winds persist across much of the area. These too will rapidly
diminish as the sun sets.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through early this evening
for southwest and parts of south central North Dakota.
Afternoon relative humidity values this afternoon have dropped
down to around 20 percent (even as low as around 15 percent in
Bowman county) with winds sustained around 30 mph gusting to 50
mph. There is some upstream cumulus clouds and possibly some
isolated to scattered shower activity. Dewpoints over southeast
Montana remain similar to those in southwest ND. In addition,
any shower activity would be very light and probably accompanied
by stronger gusts. No changes to the current Red Flag Warning
are anticipated at this time. Near critical fire weather
conditions are expected in the counties just north of those in
the Warned area.

Thursday and Friday will each present additional fire weather
concerns. At this time, we think near critical fire weather
conditions may be needed, but at this time there is enough
uncertainty to hold off. On Thursday, the lowest humidities are
expected over southwest North Dakota. However strongest winds
are expected to be east of this area, especially during the
afternoon, when humidities will be lowest. The highest rates of
spread on Thursday are forecast to be farther east, over the
south central, where low humidities and stronger winds show a
little more overlap, but still not enough to justify a near
critical mention at this time.

Friday is expected to be windier with southerly winds sustained
around 20 to 25 mph across much of the west and central.
Although dewpoint are expected to be higher as southerly winds
pull in a bit more moisture from the south, because temperatures
are expected to be much warmer (into the low to mid 70s)
afternoon humidities of 15 to 25 percent are expected across
much of the forecast area along and west of the Highway 83
corridor.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ031>034-040>046-050.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...Telken
FIRE WEATHER...Adam/TWH